Revenue, last 12 months$71.8BQ1 FY27: $19.3B, up 30%
Contracts not yet delivered (RPO)$664B31 Aug 2026, up $209B in a year
Cloud infrastructure, Q1 FY27$7.4Bup 121%
Capital spending, Q1 FY27$28.5Bfree cash flow -$5B
Net debt$88B31 Aug 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$200B$400B$600B$800B
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$395B -47% since Oct 2025
$200B$400B$600B$800B$1T
202420252026
$395B +40% since Oct 2023
$200B$400B$600B$800B$1T
20222023202420252026
$395B +62% since 2021
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If Oracle is worth $395B today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$271B3.4x today's $79B, growing 13% a year
Net profit in 2036$71B0.6x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203633%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue5.0xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case-3 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 20x earnings in 2036, a 9.5% required return and 1.5% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 5 quick questions.
The market price needs about 3 points less growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
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Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-30).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 4.5%; required return 9.5% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 1.5% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (Cloud infrastructure 15%, Cloud applications 35%, Software licences and support 70%, Hardware and services 15%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
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Build your assumptions: 5 questions
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
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Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Oracle. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
AI that runs hospitals
Oracle's agentic health record system helps doctors diagnose, write notes and bill across thousands of hospitals.
Fact Oracle launched an all-new agentic health records system in 2026, built on Cerner.
What would have to be true:
Hospitals switch systems
Regulators accept AI in care
If it happens: Oracle earns $20B a year from 2031, worth $95B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $11B.
Oracle Database inside every cloud
Oracle Database runs inside AWS, Azure and Google Cloud data centres, so customers never have to leave it.
Fact Oracle Database@AWS, @Azure and @Google Cloud have been live since 2024-2025.
What would have to be true:
Customers keep Oracle as AI moves in
Partners keep the deals going
If it happens: Oracle earns $30B a year from 2030, worth $213B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 40% chance and discounted to today: $56B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: AI that runs hospitals 30%, Oracle Database inside every cloud 45%.
Database and business software giant turned AI cloud builder, with $664B of signed contracts, much of it from OpenAI. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Oracle at $492B against a market value of $395B. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Oracle Investor Day (Oct 2026)
“$225 billion or more of revenue in fiscal 2030, over 35% growth a year from fiscal 2026.”
From $67.4B in fiscal 2026 (to May 2026).
Oracle Q1 FY27 results (Sep 2026)
“$664 billion of remaining performance obligations.”
More than eight years of revenue at today's pace; only about $86B is due in the next 12 months.
Oracle Q1 FY27 results (Sep 2026)
“Fiscal 2027 revenue of at least $90 billion.”
Up from $67.4B in fiscal 2026.
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact One class of common stock: one vote per share. A small mandatory convertible preferred issue turns into common stock later.
Economic interest
38.2%61.8%
Larry Ellison 38.2%
Other shareholders 61.8%
Shareholder votes
38.2%61.8%
Larry Ellison 38.2%
Other shareholders 61.8%
Who picks the board
all
All shareholders, one share one vote all
Larry Ellison, co-founder, executive chair and chief technology officer, is by far the largest holder and in practice hard to outvote.
In September 2026 he cancelled a plan to sell Oracle stock and said he has no other plans to sell.
Oracle has two co-CEOs, Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia.
What Oracle owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$37.1B31 Aug 2026
Debt$125Bincluding finance leases
Net debt$88.2Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$288Bdata-centre leases signed but not yet started, for 15 to 19 years; supply and power purchase obligations come on top
Commitments / revenue4.0xrevenue, last 12 months: $71.8B
Oracle spent $28.5B on data centres and equipment in a single quarter; free cash flow was about -$5B.
It sold $20B of new shares in the quarter and plans to raise no more than $10B of equity and $10B of new debt through FY30.
It expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of FY28 and to reach $30B+ in FY29.
Lease liabilities already on the balance sheet were $34.6B.
Revenue was $19.3B in the quarter to 31 August 2026, up 30%. Cloud infrastructure grew 121% to $7.4B and cloud applications 10% to $4.2B; software licences and support fell 3%.
Contracts not yet delivered (RPO) were $664B, about 13% due within 12 months. Oracle booked more than $30B of new AI cloud contracts in the quarter.
Capital spending was $28.5B in the quarter; free cash flow was about -$5B. Oracle sold $20B of new shares through an at-the-market programme.
Data-centre leases signed but not yet started total $288B, mostly starting between late 2026 and fiscal 2029, for 15 to 19 years.
At its October 2026 investor day Oracle targeted $225B+ of revenue in FY30, positive free cash flow in the second half of FY28, and no more than $20B of new capital ($10B equity, $10B debt) through FY30.
Larry Ellison owns 38.2% of the shares.
Key risks Fact
Much of the $664B backlog comes from a few AI labs, OpenAI above all; if they cannot pay, the data centres are left without tenants.
Net debt of $88B plus $288B of leases not yet started, with free cash flow negative until FY28 by Oracle's own plan.
AI cloud margins are thinner than Oracle's software margins, so profit grows slower than revenue.
Further share sales and the mandatory convertible preferred dilute today's owners.
Credit ratings: a downgrade would raise the cost of the debt still to be raised.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Cloud infrastructure (OCI, incl. AI GPU clusters)$22B last 12 months (to 31 aug 2026), $30B on the latest basis
$7.4B in Q1 FY27, up 121%. Oracle does not report this line's margin; 15% today is our estimate for a business still ramping new AI data centres.
Cloud applications (Fusion, NetSuite, Oracle Health)$16B last 12 months (to 31 aug 2026), $17B on the latest basis
$4.2B in Q1 FY27, up 10%. Margin is our estimate.
Software licences and support (Oracle Database, Java)$24B last 12 months (to 31 aug 2026), $24B on the latest basis
Support $4.9B a quarter, licences $0.7B in Q1 FY27; down 3% as customers move to the cloud. Very high margin; 70% is our estimate.
Hardware and services$9.0B last 12 months (to 31 aug 2026), $8.8B on the latest basis
Servers, storage and engineered systems ($0.8B) plus consulting and support services ($1.4B) in Q1 FY27.
Bet: AI health records (Oracle Health)
An all-new agentic electronic health record built on Cerner, launched in 2026.
Bet: AI Data Platform on company data
Database and tools that let AI models reason over a company's private data, sold across clouds.
Last 12 months (to 31 Aug 2026): Q2 FY26 to Q1 FY27 from the earnings releases. Oracle's year ends on 31 May. Latest quarter x 4 (Q1 FY27): Quarter to 31 Aug 2026 x 4; software licences use the FY26 total because they are lumpy. Cash and marketable securities $37.1B, less $125.3B of notes and borrowings (31 Aug 2026); $34.6B of lease liabilities not included. 3,024M shares outstanding on 7 Sep 2026 (10-Q cover); $5.0B of mandatory convertible preferred stock not included.
Questions people ask Fact
Is Oracle stock overvalued?
At $130.67 a share Oracle is worth about $395B, with $88B of net debt on top. Whether that is fair depends on turning $664B of signed AI cloud contracts into profit; the lab shows what has to happen.
How much does Oracle depend on OpenAI?
Oracle does not name customers in its filings. Its OpenAI contract was widely reported at about $300B over five years from 2027, a large part of the $664B backlog.
What did Oracle promise at its 2026 Investor Day?
$225B or more of revenue in fiscal 2030, a non-GAAP operating margin of 40%+, positive free cash flow from the second half of fiscal 2028 and no more than $20B of new capital through fiscal 2030.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer