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Stonkometer: Alphabet valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$3.49T$283.82 a share on 2026-10-29
Revenue, last 12 months$471.1BQ3 2026: $127.6B, up 25%
Operating income, Q3 2026$40.6B31.8% of revenue
Google Cloud, Q3 2026$30.7Bup 103%; operating income $11.1B
Capital spending, Jan-Sep 2026$132.0Bmore than twice the $63.6B a year earlier
Net cash$140B30 Sep 2026, incl. $75.2B of SpaceX shares
Value over time
Total market value
$1T$2T$3T$4T$5T
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$3.49T +3% since Oct 2025
$1T$2T$3T$4T$5T
202420252026
$3.49T +124% since Oct 2023
$1T$2T$3T$4T$5T
20222023202420252026
$3.49T +73% since Oct 2021
$1T$2T$3T$4T$5T
20122015201820212024
$3.49T 18x since 2011
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If Alphabet is worth $3.49T today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$1.54T3.0x today's $508B, growing 12% a year
Net profit in 2036$401B3.6x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203633%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue6.9xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case+2 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 23x earnings in 2036, a 9.5% required return and 1% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 7 quick questions.
The market price needs about +2 points more growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-29).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 4.5%; required return 9.5% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 1% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (Google Services 35%, Google Cloud 30%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
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Build your assumptions: 7 questions
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 7 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Alphabet. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Useful quantum computers
Quantum computers that solve real chemistry, materials and optimisation problems, rented out through Google Cloud.
Fact Google's Willow chip showed error rates falling as qubits were added (2024); no commercial use yet.
What would have to be true:
Error-corrected qubits at scale
Problems worth paying for
If it happens: Alphabet earns $38B a year from 2033, worth $237B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 15% chance and discounted to today: $18B.
AI-designed medicines
Isomorphic Labs and DeepMind design drug candidates with AI and share in the sales of the medicines.
Fact AlphaFold's inventors won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry; Isomorphic has pharma partnerships but no approved medicine yet.
What would have to be true:
AI-designed drugs pass clinical trials
Alphabet keeps a share of the sales
If it happens: Alphabet earns $10B a year from 2032, worth $55B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $6.0B.
Robot brains (Gemini Robotics)
AI models that let robots see, plan and handle objects, licensed to robot makers.
Fact Google DeepMind has released Gemini Robotics models for robot makers.
What would have to be true:
Robots that work safely in homes and factories
Makers license models instead of building their own
If it happens: Alphabet earns $45B a year from 2032, worth $213B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $23B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Useful quantum computers 40%, AI-designed medicines 35%, Robot brains (Gemini Robotics) 30%.
Google Search, YouTube, Android and Google Cloud, plus Waymo robotaxis and its own AI chips (TPUs). Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Alphabet at $3.10T against a market value of $3.49T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Sundar Pichai, Alphabet CEO (Oct 2026)
“"We are now on a half-trillion dollar revenue run rate."”
Q3 2026 revenue of $127.6B x 4 is $510B; the last 12 months were $471.1B.
Alphabet 10-Q (Sep 2026)
“$567.7 billion of revenue backlog, $560.8 billion of it Google Cloud.”
About four and a half years of Cloud revenue at today's pace; Alphabet expects just over 55% of it within 24 months.
Market value (28 Oct 2026)
“Alphabet was worth about $4 trillion the day before its Q3 results.”
The shares fell 12.6% the next day. What would $4 trillion need in yearly profit?
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact Class A (GOOGL): one vote per share. Class B: ten votes per share, not listed, about 90% held by Larry Page and Sergey Brin. Class C (GOOG): no vote.
Economic interest
89%
Larry Page and Sergey Brin 11%
Other shareholders 89%
Shareholder votes
27.4%25.3%47.3%
Larry Page 27.4%
Sergey Brin 25.3%
Other shareholders 47.3%
Who picks the board
all
Elected by shareholder vote, where Page and Brin have 52.7% all
The co-founders left management in 2019 but together still decide every shareholder vote. Their economic stake is under 11%.
Most new shares Alphabet issues are non-voting Class C or one-vote Class A, so selling them does not dilute the founders' control.
What Alphabet owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$265B30 Sep 2026
Debt$125Bincluding finance leases
Net cash$140Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$924Bpurchase commitments, $802.1B of them multi-year (servers, chips, energy and content); $213.4B due within 12 months
Commitments / revenue2.0xrevenue, last 12 months: $471B
Long-term debt rose from $46.5B at the start of 2026 to $125.1B; Alphabet also sold $49.5B of new shares and preferred stock.
Data-centre leases signed but not yet started add $130.5B, and it backs $75.7B of partners' data-centre leases and energy costs.
Cash and securities include $75.2B of SpaceX shares; stakes in private companies worth $135.2B on the books are not counted.
Revenue was $127.6B in Q3 2026, up 25%. Google Cloud more than doubled to $30.7B, helped by AI infrastructure and sales of TPU systems; Google Services grew 11% to $96.3B.
Operating income was $40.6B: Services $39.2B, Cloud $11.1B, Other Bets -$2.0B and Alphabet-level AI research -$7.7B. Net income fell to $26.2B on an $8.2B loss on investments, mostly SpaceX shares.
Capital spending was $51.4B in the quarter and $132.0B in the first nine months, against $63.6B a year earlier.
To pay for it Alphabet now issues shares: $20.5B in a June offering, $10B to Berkshire Hathaway, $19.0B of mandatory convertible preferred stock and $12.4B through an at-the-market program. It bought back no shares in 2026.
Signed purchase commitments reached $924.4B ($213.4B due within 12 months), plus $130.5B of data-centre leases not yet started.
The Gemini app has one billion users and the first-party models process nearly 32 billion tokens a minute.
Key risks Fact
AI chat could take searches, and the ad money behind them, away from Google Search.
Antitrust cases in the US and Europe over Search, ads and Android; accrued legal fines and settlements stand at $13.8B.
Spending is running ahead of cash flow: $924B of purchase commitments and new share issues dilute owners.
Cloud growth depends on a few very large AI customers and on TPU systems sales.
Larry Page and Sergey Brin control about 52% of the votes.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Google Services (Search, YouTube, Android, subscriptions)$376B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $385B on the latest basis
Search and other $63.4B (up 12%), YouTube ads $11.2B, subscriptions, platforms and devices $14.3B in Q3 2026. 40.7% segment margin, about 35% after Alphabet-level AI research costs.
Google Cloud (incl. TPU sales)$93B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $123B on the latest basis
Up 103% in Q3 2026 to $30.7B, with 36.2% segment margin. Includes Wiz (bought for $29.5B in March 2026) and sales of TPU systems. $560.8B of signed Cloud backlog.
Bet: Waymo robotaxis
Driverless ride-hailing in several US cities; Other Bets had $1.5B of revenue and lost $9.6B over the last 12 months.
Bet: AI drug discovery (Isomorphic Labs)
AlphaFold-based drug design with pharma partners. No approved medicine yet.
Last 12 months (to 30 Sep 2026): Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 by segment from the earnings releases. Latest quarter x 4 (Q3 2026): Q3 2026 segment revenue x 4. Google Cloud more than doubled in a year, so the last 12 months understate it. Cash and marketable securities $265.1B (including $75.2B of SpaceX shares), less $125.1B of long-term debt (30 Sep 2026); $135.2B of private company stakes not included. 12,294M Class A, B and C shares outstanding on 30 Sep 2026 (Q3 2026 earnings release); Class A price used.
Questions people ask Fact
What is Alphabet worth today?
About $3.49T at $283.82 a share (2026-10-29). Its last 12 months of profit include large gains on its stakes in private companies such as SpaceX, so the lab works from operating profit by business line instead.
How does Google make money?
Mostly from ads: Search, YouTube and the ad network made up most of the $96.3B of Google Services revenue in Q3 2026. Google Cloud more than doubled to $30.7B in the quarter.
What is Waymo worth inside Alphabet?
Alphabet does not report it separately. Waymo sits in Other Bets, which lost $9.6B over the last 12 months. The lab treats it as a bet with a chance of success you set.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer