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Stonkometer: TSMC valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$2.24T$431.81 a share on 2026-10-29
Revenue, last 12 months$156.6BQ3 2026: $46.7B, up 41%
Operating margin, Q3 202658.7%gross margin 66.4%
Next quarter (guidance)$52.3-54.3Brevenue in Q4 2026
Advanced chips79%7nm and smaller, share of wafer revenue
Net cash$100B30 Sep 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$1T$2T$3T
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$2.24T +44% since Oct 2025
$1T$2T$3T
202420252026
$2.24T 5.0x since Oct 2023
$1T$2T$3T
20222023202420252026
$2.24T 3.8x since Oct 2021
$1T$2T$3T
200620102014201820222026
$2.24T 54x since 2005
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If TSMC is worth $2.24T today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$643B4.1x today's $157B, growing 15% a year
Net profit in 2036$271B2.5x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203653%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue14xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case+6 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 21x earnings in 2036, a 10.5% required return and 0% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 6 quick questions.
The market price needs about +6 points more growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-29).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 5.5%; required return 10.5% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 0% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (High-performance computing 61%, Smartphones 55%, Cars, IoT and other 45%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 6 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay TSMC. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Optical chips for AI
Chips that move data with light instead of copper, making AI clusters faster and cooler.
Fact TSMC is developing silicon photonics and co-packaged optics with NVIDIA and others.
What would have to be true:
AI clusters keep growing
TSMC wins the manufacturing, not only the design
If it happens: TSMC earns $24B a year from 2030, worth $171B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 40% chance and discounted to today: $46B.
Chips for space and orbital data centres
Radiation-tough chips for satellites and data centres in orbit.
Fact SpaceX plans orbital compute "as early as 2028" (prospectus).
What would have to be true:
Orbital data centres become real
Advanced chips survive radiation
If it happens: TSMC earns $12B a year from 2034, worth $85B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 15% chance and discounted to today: $5.8B.
Brain-inspired chips
New chip designs that compute like neurons and use far less power.
Fact Several research chips exist; none is a large business yet.
What would have to be true:
A design that beats GPUs on cost and power
Its maker chooses TSMC
If it happens: TSMC earns $32B a year from 2036, worth $228B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 10% chance and discounted to today: $8.4B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Optical chips for AI 45%, Chips for space and orbital data centres 45%, Brain-inspired chips 45%.
The Taiwanese foundry that makes the most advanced chips for NVIDIA, Apple, AMD and nearly everyone else. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts TSMC at $1.53T against a market value of $2.24T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
TSMC (2024-2026)
“The semiconductor industry will be worth about $1 trillion a year by 2030.”
Chip sales are TSMC's customers' revenue; TSMC earns the manufacturing part of it.
TSMC outlook (Oct 2026)
“2026 revenue will grow about 44% in US dollars.”
From $122.4B in 2025.
TSMC (Mar 2025)
“A total of $165 billion invested in Arizona factories.”
TSMC spent about $40B on capital projects in 2025 worldwide. Chips made in Arizona cost more than in Taiwan.
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact One class of common shares listed in Taipei; NYSE ADRs each stand for five shares. One vote per share.
Economic interest
93.6%
Taiwan government (National Development Fund) 6.4%
Other shareholders, mostly foreign funds 93.6%
Shareholder votes
93.6%
Taiwan government (National Development Fund) 6.4%
Other shareholders, mostly foreign funds 93.6%
Who picks the board
all
All shareholders, one share one vote all
The National Development Fund has been the largest single shareholder since TSMC was founded in 1987 and has a seat on the board.
Foreign investors own most of the shares, through Taipei and the NYSE ADRs.
What TSMC owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$126B30 Sep 2026
Debt$25.6Bincluding finance leases
Net cash$100Bcash minus debt
Spending commitmentsNone disclosedTSMC does not publish a quarterly total; its spending is mostly its own factories, paid as it goes
Commitments / revenue–revenue, last 12 months: $157B
Capital spending was NT$443B (about $13.9B) in Q3 2026, paid from cash flow of NT$920B.
Long-term debt is mostly bonds and has been shrinking: NT$918B a year ago, NT$818B now.
The real obligation is the $165B plan for Arizona plus new plants in Japan and Germany.
Revenue was US$46.7B in Q3 2026, up 41% in dollars, with a 66.4% gross margin and a 58.7% operating margin.
High-performance computing, mostly AI chips, was 68% of revenue; smartphones fell to 21% from 30% a year earlier.
2nm chips were 8% of wafer revenue in their first full quarter; 3nm 33%, 5nm 28%, 7nm 10%.
TSMC guides Q4 revenue of $52.3-54.3B and expects 2026 revenue to grow about 44% in dollars.
Capital spending was NT$443B (about $13.9B) in Q3 2026. Net cash is about $100B.
Key risks Fact
Most advanced production sits in Taiwan: any conflict or blockade would stop it.
A handful of customers (NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Broadcom) make up much of revenue.
US tariffs and export rules, and pressure to build more expensive plants abroad.
Chip demand moves in cycles; an AI slowdown would leave new factories underused.
Earthquakes, drought and power supply in Taiwan.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
High-performance computing (AI and servers)$100B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $127B on the latest basis
68% of revenue in Q3 2026, up 22% on the quarter: AI accelerators, server and PC processors.
Smartphones$39B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $39B on the latest basis
21% of revenue in Q3 2026 (30% a year earlier): Apple and Android phone chips.
Cars, IoT and other$18B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $21B on the latest basis
Internet of things 4%, automotive 4%, consumer electronics 1% and other 2% of Q3 2026 revenue.
Bet: Silicon photonics and new packaging
Light-based links between chips and larger chip packages for AI systems.
Last 12 months (to 30 Sep 2026): Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 in US dollars; the split by platform is our estimate from TSMC's quarterly percentages. Latest quarter x 4 (Q3 2026): Q3 2026 revenue x 4 by platform. TSMC guides $52.3-54.3B for Q4. Cash and marketable securities NT$4,017B ($125.6B), less long-term interest-bearing debt NT$818B ($25.6B), at NT$31.98 a dollar (30 Sep 2026). 25,932M common shares on 30 Sep 2026 = 5,186.4M ADR units (one NYSE ADR = 5 shares). The ADR often trades above the Taipei price.
Questions people ask Fact
What is TSMC worth today?
About $2.24T at $431.81 an ADR (2026-10-29). One NYSE ADR equals five Taipei shares, and the ADR often trades at a premium.
How does TSMC make money?
By manufacturing chips that other companies design. In Q3 2026, high-performance computing (mostly AI) was 68% of revenue and smartphones 21%.
Why is Taiwan a risk for TSMC?
Most of its advanced production is in Taiwan. A conflict, blockade, earthquake or power shortage could stop it; the lab lets you add an extra return for that risk.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer