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Stonkometer: Meta valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$1.60T$624.52 a share on 2026-10-29
Revenue, last 12 months$241.6BQ3 2026: $64.6B, up 26%
Operating income, Q3 2026$13.0Bafter a $9.9B legal charge
Daily users3.64BSeptember 2026, up 3%
Capital spending, 2026$135-145Bcompany outlook
Net debt$1.2B30 Sep 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$1T$2T
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$1.60T -2% since Oct 2025
$1T$2T$3T
202420252026
$1.60T +106% since Oct 2023
$1T$2T$3T
20222023202420252026
$1.60T +75% since Oct 2021
$1T$2T$3T
20132016201920222025
$1.60T 38x since 2012
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If Meta is worth $1.60T today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$674B2.8x today's $242B, growing 11% a year
Net profit in 2036$201B1.8x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203638%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue6.6xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case+1 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 22x earnings in 2036, a 9.5% required return and 1% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 8 quick questions.
The market price needs about +1 points more growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-29).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 4.5%; required return 9.5% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 1% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (Family of Apps 42%, Reality Labs -840%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 8 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Meta. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
AI glasses replace the phone
Glasses with an AI assistant and a display become the device people use most, as phones did after 2007.
Fact Meta sells Ray-Ban and Oakley smart glasses; Reality Labs had $2.2B of revenue over the last 12 months.
What would have to be true:
Light, all-day glasses with a good display
Apps and services people want on them
Apple and Google don't win the market
If it happens: Meta earns $120B a year from 2034, worth $474B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 15% chance and discounted to today: $32B.
AI agents for small businesses
AI that answers customers, books appointments and sells on WhatsApp and Instagram for millions of small firms.
Fact More than 200 million businesses use Meta's apps, many to talk with customers on WhatsApp.
What would have to be true:
Agents good enough to trust with customers
Businesses pay per conversation or per month
If it happens: Meta earns $38B a year from 2030, worth $237B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 30% chance and discounted to today: $48B.
Virtual worlds
The 3D virtual spaces Meta was renamed for in 2021: work, games and social life in VR.
Fact Reality Labs has lost more than $90B since 2020.
What would have to be true:
Comfortable, cheap headsets
A reason to spend hours a day inside
If it happens: Meta earns $30B a year from 2036, worth $119B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 5% chance and discounted to today: $2.2B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: AI glasses replace the phone 25%, AI agents for small businesses 40%, Virtual worlds 25%.
Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, paid for by ads, plus a costly bet on AI and smart glasses. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Meta at $1.54T against a market value of $1.60T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Meta CFO outlook (Oct 2026)
“Capital spending of $135-145 billion in 2026, including finance leases.”
That is more than half of Meta's revenue of the last 12 months ($241.6B), up from $72B in 2025.
Meta CFO outlook (Oct 2026)
“Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $73-76 billion.”
Midpoint of the range, against $64.6B in Q3.
Mark Zuckerberg (Oct 2026)
“"Personal superintelligence for everyone."”
Reality Labs has lost more than $90B since 2020. Meta's AI models must now earn money beyond better ads.
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact Class A: one vote per share, traded on Nasdaq. Class B: ten votes per share, 99.8% held by Mark Zuckerberg. Class C (from January 2027): no vote.
Economic interest
86.5%
Mark Zuckerberg 13.5%
Other shareholders 86.5%
Shareholder votes
60.8%39.2%
Mark Zuckerberg 60.8%
Other shareholders 39.2%
Who picks the board
all
Elected by shareholder vote, where Zuckerberg has 60.8% all
Meta is a "controlled company": Zuckerberg alone decides every shareholder vote, including who sits on the board.
In January 2027 every shareholder gets one new non-voting Class C share per share held. Meta can then sell or pay with shares without diluting his vote.
He has pledged 12 million Class B shares as collateral for personal loans.
What Meta owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$82.5B30 Sep 2026
Debt$83.7Bincluding finance leases
Net debt$1.2Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$455Bnon-cancelable, mostly third-party cloud capacity, servers and network equipment, and energy contracts
Commitments / revenue1.9xrevenue, last 12 months: $242B
Long-term debt rose from $28.8B a year ago to $83.7B, including $25B of bonds sold in May 2026.
In October 2026 Meta also raised $12.5B with mandatory convertible preferred stock, which turns into shares, and agreed to sell 40 million new shares by November 2027.
Capital spending for 2026 is expected at $135-145B, more than half of revenue.
Revenue was $64.6B in Q3 2026, up 26%: ad impressions rose 10% and the average price per ad 14%.
Operating income fell 37% to $13.0B after a $9.9B charge for an August 2026 agreement with state attorneys general, higher data-centre costs and payments for third-party AI models.
Reality Labs lost $4.1B in the quarter. Meta expects losses of $18-19B in 2026 and about $15B in 2027.
Capital spending, including finance leases, was $34.9B in the quarter; the 2026 outlook is $135-145B. Non-cancelable commitments total $454.5B.
In October 2026 Meta sold $12.5B of mandatory convertible preferred stock and agreed a forward sale of 40 million shares, after $25B of bonds in May.
A new non-voting Class C share is due in January 2027, handed out one for one (like a 2-for-1 split), for raising money, paying staff and buying companies.
Key risks Fact
Ads pay almost all the bills: a recession or a shift away from Meta's apps hits revenue directly.
Spending on AI data centres is huge and may not earn its cost back.
Regulators and courts in the US and Europe: privacy, competition and child-safety cases.
Reality Labs keeps losing more than $15B a year.
Mark Zuckerberg controls the vote, so outside shareholders cannot change course.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Family of Apps (ads)$239B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $257B on the latest basis
3.64 billion people use at least one app every day. Q3 2026 revenue up 26%; operating margin 27% after a $9.9B legal charge (49% a year earlier).
Reality Labs (glasses and VR)$2B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $2B on the latest basis
Ray-Ban and Oakley smart glasses and Quest headsets. Lost $4.1B in Q3 2026 on $0.4B of revenue.
Bet: Meta AI and Muse models (paid)
Muse and Muse Wonder, Meta's first frontier models, launched in Q3 2026. No separate revenue yet.
Bet: WhatsApp business messaging
Businesses pay to message customers; part of "other revenue" today.
Last 12 months (to 30 Sep 2026): FY2025 + 9M 2026 - 9M 2025, from the 10-K and 10-Q. Latest quarter x 4 (Q3 2026): Q3 2026 segment revenue x 4. Q4 is usually the biggest quarter for ads. Cash and marketable securities $82.5B, less $83.7B of long-term debt (30 Sep 2026). 2,214.5M Class A + 341.8M Class B shares outstanding on 16 Oct 2026 (10-Q cover).
Questions people ask Fact
What is Meta worth today?
About $1.60T at $624.52 a share (2026-10-29). Whether that is fair depends on ad growth and on whether AI spending pays off; set your own numbers in the lab above.
How does Meta make money?
Almost entirely from ads on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, used by 3.64 billion people a day. Reality Labs (glasses and VR) loses more than $15B a year.
What are Meta's new Class C shares?
Non-voting shares due in January 2027. Every shareholder gets one Class C share for each share held, which works like a 2-for-1 split. Meta can then raise money or pay staff without diluting Mark Zuckerberg's vote.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer