Move the sliders, read the needle, share your call.
Stonkometer: Apple valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$5.09T$348.91 a share on 2026-10-29
Revenue, last 12 months$466.8BJune 2026 quarter: $109.4B, up 16%
Operating income, June quarter$35.7B32.6% of revenue
Services, June quarter$30.7Bup 12%; 75.6% gross margin
Buybacks, Oct 2025-Jun 2026$61.8B215 million shares
Net cash$62B27 Jun 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$2T$4T$6T
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$5.09T +27% since Oct 2025
$2T$4T$6T
202420252026
$5.09T +91% since Oct 2023
$2T$4T$6T
20222023202420252026
$5.09T +106% since Oct 2021
$2T$4T$6T
200920122015201820212024
$5.09T 42x since 2008
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If Apple is worth $5.09T today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$1.60T3.4x today's $467B, growing 13% a year
Net profit in 2036$459B4.2x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203636%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue11xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case+11 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 26x earnings in 2036, a 9.0% required return and 0% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 7 quick questions.
The market price needs about +11 points more growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-29).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 4%; required return 9% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 0% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (iPhone 26%, Services 58%, Mac, iPad, Watch, AirPods and home 18%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Affiliate links: we may earn a commission if you sign up or buy, at no extra cost to you. It never changes our numbers. Affiliate disclosure
Advertisement
Build your assumptions: 7 questions
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 7 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Apple. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Glasses replace the iPhone
Light glasses with displays and AI become the main personal device, as the iPhone did after 2007.
Fact Apple sells the Vision Pro headset; Meta already sells Ray-Ban AI glasses.
What would have to be true:
Light, all-day glasses with a good display
Apple keeps its lead in design
If it happens: Apple earns $140B a year from 2032, worth $553B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $66B.
Health monitoring
Watch and AirPods sensors that track blood pressure, glucose and hearing, sold with paid health services.
Fact Apple Watch has FDA-cleared hypertension alerts and AirPods work as hearing aids.
What would have to be true:
Regulators clear new sensors
Insurers or users pay for health services
If it happens: Apple earns $30B a year from 2031, worth $142B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 25% chance and discounted to today: $23B.
Home robots
A tabletop robot or home assistant that moves, sees and helps around the house.
Fact Apple has not announced a robot; it sells HomePod and Apple TV today.
What would have to be true:
Robots useful enough at a consumer price
Apple chooses to launch one
If it happens: Apple earns $30B a year from 2033, worth $119B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 10% chance and discounted to today: $6.5B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Glasses replace the iPhone 25%, Health monitoring 30%, Home robots 25%.
iPhone, Mac, iPad, Watch and AirPods, plus the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other services. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Apple at $2.43T against a market value of $5.09T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Tim Cook, Apple CEO (Jul 2026)
“"Our strongest June quarter ever."”
Revenue of $109.4B was up 16%; tariff refunds added about 2 points to gross margin.
Apple (Apr 2026)
“A further $100 billion for share buybacks.”
Apple bought back $61.8B in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, about 1.5% of its shares.
Market value (29 Oct 2026)
“Apple is worth about $5.1 trillion.”
What would that need in yearly profit?
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact One class of common stock: one vote per share.
Economic interest
83.3%
Vanguard 9.6%
BlackRock 7.1%
Other shareholders 83.3%
Shareholder votes
83.3%
Vanguard 9.6%
BlackRock 7.1%
Other shareholders 83.3%
Who picks the board
all
All shareholders, one share one vote all
No one controls Apple. Tim Cook owns about 3.3 million shares, far below 1%.
Buybacks shrink the share count by about 2% a year, so each remaining share owns a little more of Apple.
What Apple owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$147B27 Jun 2026
Debt$84.3Bincluding finance leases
Net cash$62.2Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$86.3Bmanufacturing purchase obligations $57.0B (almost all within 12 months) and other purchase obligations $29.3B
Commitments / revenue0.2xrevenue, last 12 months: $467B
Apple has been paying down debt: term debt and commercial paper fell from $98.7B to $84.3B in nine months.
It spent $61.8B on buybacks and $11.8B on dividends in the same nine months.
It paid the last $8.8B of the 2017 US tax on overseas profits.
Revenue was $109.4B in the quarter to 27 June 2026, up 16%: iPhone $54.3B (up 22%), Services $30.7B (up 12%) and Mac $10.4B (up 29%).
Gross margin was 50.1%, including about 2 points from tariff refunds. Operating income was $35.7B.
Greater China sales rose 22% to $18.8B, and every region grew.
Apple bought back $61.8B of shares in nine months and announced another $100B program in April 2026.
It owes suppliers $57.0B for manufacturing (almost all within 12 months) plus $29.3B of other purchase obligations. Capital spending is small: $6.8B in nine months.
Siri AI was introduced at WWDC26 in June 2026. Results for the September quarter are due in late October.
Key risks Fact
iPhone is more than half of revenue; a weak upgrade cycle hits results directly.
App Store fees and Google's search payments face antitrust cases (US Department of Justice, Epic Games, the EU Digital Markets Act).
Most products are assembled in China and India; tariffs and trade tensions affect costs.
Apple is behind Google, OpenAI and others in AI models and relies on partners.
Memory and component costs are rising.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
iPhone$246B last 12 months (to 27 jun 2026), $217B on the latest basis
$54.3B in the June 2026 quarter, up 22%. Operating margin is our estimate: Apple reports only gross margin for all products (40.1%).
Services (App Store, iCloud, Music, ads, payments)$120B last 12 months (to 27 jun 2026), $123B on the latest basis
$30.7B in the June 2026 quarter, up 12%, with a 75.6% gross margin. Includes payments from Google for Safari search.
Mac, iPad, Watch, AirPods and home$101B last 12 months (to 27 jun 2026), $98B on the latest basis
Mac $10.4B (up 29%), iPad $6.2B, Wearables, Home and Accessories $7.9B in the June 2026 quarter.
Bet: Paid AI (Siri AI and Apple Intelligence)
Siri AI was introduced at WWDC26. Today it is free; this is what a paid tier or AI subscriptions could add.
Bet: Smart glasses and Vision
Vision Pro headset today; lighter glasses would follow the Watch and AirPods path.
Last 12 months (to 27 Jun 2026): September 2025 quarter to June 2026 quarter by product line. Apple's year ends in late September. Latest quarter x 4 (June 2026): June quarter x 4. The June quarter is usually Apple's smallest, so this understates the year. Cash and marketable securities $146.5B, less $84.3B of commercial paper and term debt (27 Jun 2026). 14,594M shares outstanding on 17 Jul 2026 (10-Q cover).
Questions people ask Fact
Is Apple stock overvalued?
At $348.91 a share Apple is worth about $5.09T, around 40 times its last 12 months of profit. Whether that is too much depends on iPhone upgrades, Services and AI; the lab shows what has to happen.
How does Apple make money?
The iPhone brings about half the revenue ($54.3B of $109.4B in the quarter to June 2026). Services (App Store, iCloud, payments, licensing) is smaller but far more profitable.
How much stock does Apple buy back?
A lot: $61.8B in the nine months to June 2026, and a new $100B programme from April 2026. Fewer shares mean each one owns more of the profit.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer