Revenue, fiscal 2026$707MAI cloud $129M, up about 8x
AI cloud run-rate$1Boperating on 26 Aug 2026; $4B contracted for 2026
Contracted revenue$16.6BRPO plus lease contracts, 30 Jun 2026
Net loss, fiscal 2026-$703Mafter $639M of mining impairments
Net debt$1.7B30 Jun 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$10B$20B$30B
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$9.7B -43% since Oct 2025
$10B$20B$30B
202420252026
$9.7B 32x since Oct 2023
$10B$20B$30B
20222023202420252026
$9.7B 11x since 2021
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If IREN is worth $9.7B today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$15B12x today's $1.3B, growing 28% a year
Net profit in 2036$3.1B3% of what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203627%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue7.6xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case-9 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 18x earnings in 2036, a 13.0% required return and 4% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 5 quick questions.
The market price needs about 9 points less growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Share your valuation
Your link opens your exact model: every slider, scenario and moonshot.
Download
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-30).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 8%; required return 13% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 4% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (AI cloud 10%, Bitcoin mining 20%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Affiliate links: we may earn a commission if you sign up or buy, at no extra cost to you. It never changes our numbers. Affiliate disclosure
Advertisement
Build your assumptions: 5 questions
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 5 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay IREN. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Filling 5 GW of power with AI
IREN builds AI data centres across its whole pipeline in Texas, Oklahoma, Canada, Australia and Spain.
Fact IREN targets about 0.8 GW (IT) delivered by 2027 from a pipeline of more than 5 GW.
What would have to be true:
Customers sign for 2027-2028 capacity
Financing at good rates
If it happens: IREN earns $7.5B a year from 2031, worth $36B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 15% chance and discounted to today: $2.4B.
Managed AI cloud with software
Selling managed services and software on top of the GPUs, through Mirantis, instead of bare metal only.
Fact IREN bought Mirantis, a cloud software company with more than 1,500 enterprise customers, in August 2026.
What would have to be true:
Enterprises want managed AI
Mirantis keeps its customers
If it happens: IREN earns $2.0B a year from 2030, worth $11B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 25% chance and discounted to today: $1.4B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Filling 5 GW of power with AI 30%, Managed AI cloud with software 35%.
Former bitcoin miner turning its power sites in Texas and Canada into AI data centres, with a $9.7B GPU contract from Microsoft. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts IREN at $16B against a market value of $9.7B. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
IREN FY26 results (Aug 2026)
“$4 billion of contracted annualised revenue for 2026 capacity, with $1 billion operating today.”
From the $1B run-rate on 26 August to December 2026.
IREN FY26 results (Aug 2026)
“Recent three-year contracts at more than $20 million of revenue per MW, about a two-year payback.”
Payback is IREN's estimate: GPU and equipment cost divided by contract revenue less direct costs.
IREN 8-K (Aug 2026)
“Horizon 1 delivered to Microsoft; three more 50 MW deployments due in 2026.”
Under the five-year, $9.7B contract signed in November 2025.
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact Ordinary shares: one vote each. Two B Class shares, one per co-founder, give each 15 votes for every ordinary share they hold.
Economic interest
93.6%
Daniel and William Roberts (co-founders) 6.4%
Other shareholders 93.6%
Shareholder votes
39.5%60.5%
Daniel and William Roberts (co-founders) 39.5%
Other shareholders 60.5%
Who picks the board
all
Elected by all votes, where the co-founders have about 40% all
Each co-founder owns 3.2% of the shares and about 20% of the votes.
What IREN owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$5.9B30 Jun 2026
Debt$7.6Bincluding finance leases
Net debt$1.7Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$13.8Bcapital commitments, mostly GPUs and equipment for contracted AI capacity
Revenue was $707.0M in the year to 30 June 2026: $128.8M from AI cloud (about 8x the year before) and $578.2M from bitcoin mining.
The net loss was $702.6M, after $638.8M of impairments, mostly on retired bitcoin miners.
Contracts not yet delivered were $16.6B: $5.1B of service contracts and $11.4B of lease contracts, including Microsoft's five-year, $9.7B deal.
IREN reported $1B of annualised AI cloud revenue operating on 26 August 2026 and $4B contracted for capacity due by December 2026.
It had $13.8B of capital commitments, mostly GPUs, funded by $3.6B of investment-grade GPU financing for the Microsoft contract, $2.8B of other GPU loans and customer prepayments.
Co-founders Daniel and William Roberts own 3.2% of the shares each and about 20% of the votes each through B Class shares.
Key risks Fact
Microsoft's contract is more than half of the signed backlog.
Capital commitments of $13.8B are larger than today's market value; more borrowing and new shares will be needed.
Bitcoin mining revenue is shrinking fast and depends on the bitcoin price.
Building liquid-cooled AI data centres on time is new for IREN; delays push revenue back.
GPUs bought now may be worth much less by the time contracts end.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
AI cloud (GPUs for Microsoft and AI labs)$129M fiscal 2026 (to 30 jun 2026), $1.0B on the latest basis
$70.5M in Q4 FY26, but $1B a year operating by late August 2026 and $4B contracted for 2026 capacity. Margin is our estimate.
Bitcoin mining (being wound down)$578M fiscal 2026 (to 30 jun 2026), $267M on the latest basis
$66.7M in Q4 FY26, down from $111.2M the quarter before as miners are switched off and sites converted to AI.
Bet: Leasing powered sites to other clouds
IREN has a pipeline of more than 5 GW of grid power; land and power could be leased rather than filled with its own GPUs.
Fiscal 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026): From the FY26 results; AI cloud $128.8M, bitcoin mining $578.2M. Run-rate (AI cloud: company ARR on 26 Aug 2026; mining: Q4 FY26 x 4): IREN reported $1B of annualised AI cloud revenue operating on 26 Aug 2026 and $4B contracted for capacity due by December 2026. Cash $5.9B, less $7.6B of debt (30 Jun 2026); $1.7B of restricted cash and $0.2B of finance leases not included. 404.6M ordinary shares on 28 Sep 2026 (2026 proxy statement). Convertible notes could add more..
Questions people ask Fact
Is IREN stock overvalued?
At $23.95 a share IREN is worth about $9.7B. It had $1B a year of AI cloud revenue running in August 2026 and $4B contracted; the lab shows how much of that it must keep and grow.
Is IREN still a bitcoin miner?
Less and less. Mining brought $578M in fiscal 2026 but is being wound down as sites switch to AI; the AI cloud grew about 8x to $129M and runs far higher now.
What is IREN's Microsoft contract?
A five-year, $9.7B AI cloud contract signed in November 2025 for four 50 MW GPU deployments at Childress, Texas. The first was delivered in August 2026.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer