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Stonkometer: NVIDIA valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$5.15T$213.66 a share on 2026-10-29
Revenue, last 12 months$303BQ2 FY27 alone $96.2B, up 106%
Operating income, Q2 FY27$63.7B66% of revenue
Gross margin75.0%Q2 FY27
Next quarter (guidance)$108Bplus or minus 2%, no China data-centre sales
Net cash$23B26 Jul 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$2T$4T$6T
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$5.15T +5% since Oct 2025
$2T$4T$6T
202420252026
$5.15T 5.1x since Oct 2023
$2T$4T$6T
20222023202420252026
$5.15T 8.1x since Oct 2021
$2T$4T$6T
200920122015201820212024
$5.15T 381x since 2008
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If NVIDIA is worth $5.15T today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$1.33T3.5x today's $385B, growing 13% a year
Net profit in 2036$562B5.1x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203653%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue13xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case+7 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 24x earnings in 2036, a 10.0% required return and 0% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 8 quick questions.
The market price needs about +7 points more growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-29).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 5%; required return 10% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 0% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (Data Center 68%, Edge Computing 40%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 8 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay NVIDIA. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Brains for humanoid robots
The computers and AI models inside billions of dollars' worth of humanoid robots in factories, warehouses and homes.
Fact NVIDIA sells Jetson Thor robot computers and GR00T robot models; humanoid robots are not sold at scale by anyone yet.
What would have to be true:
Robots that do useful work safely
Robot makers buy NVIDIA rather than build their own chips
Prices low enough for mass adoption
If it happens: NVIDIA earns $90B a year from 2033, worth $498B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $51B.
Self-driving car computers
Chips and driving software in cars from many makers, sold per car or by subscription.
Fact NVIDIA's DRIVE platform is used by carmakers such as Mercedes-Benz, Toyota and BYD.
What would have to be true:
Regulators allow self-driving widely
Carmakers choose NVIDIA over their own chips
Software paid per car, not just the chip
If it happens: NVIDIA earns $30B a year from 2031, worth $166B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 30% chance and discounted to today: $31B.
Quantum and AI supercomputers
Systems that join quantum processors with GPUs for chemistry, materials and drug discovery.
Fact NVIDIA builds software (CUDA-Q) and links (NVQLink) for quantum computers; useful quantum computers don't exist yet.
What would have to be true:
Quantum computers that beat normal ones on real problems
NVIDIA stays the platform that ties them together
If it happens: NVIDIA earns $20B a year from 2036, worth $126B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 15% chance and discounted to today: $7.3B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Brains for humanoid robots 35%, Self-driving car computers 35%, Quantum and AI supercomputers 40%.
The chips, networking and software inside most AI data centres, plus gaming and workstation graphics. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts NVIDIA at $3.23T against a market value of $5.15T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO (Aug 2025)
“$3 trillion to $4 trillion of AI infrastructure spending by the end of the decade.”
Spending on AI data centres is NVIDIA's market, but chips are only part of it: buildings, power and memory take the rest.
NVIDIA outlook (Aug 2026)
“Revenue of $108 billion in the quarter to October 2026.”
Up from $96.2B one quarter earlier.
Market milestone (29 Oct 2025)
“NVIDIA became the first company worth $5 trillion.”
What would today's value need in yearly profit?
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact One class of common stock: one vote per share.
Economic interest
81.7%
Jensen Huang 3.6%
BlackRock 7.4%
Vanguard 7.3%
Other shareholders 81.7%
Shareholder votes
81.7%
Jensen Huang 3.6%
BlackRock 7.4%
Vanguard 7.3%
Other shareholders 81.7%
Who picks the board
all
All shareholders, one share one vote all
Co-founder Jensen Huang has run NVIDIA since 1993 and owns about 871 million shares, worth roughly $186B at today's price.
No shareholder controls NVIDIA; index funds are the largest holders.
What NVIDIA owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Revenue was $96.2B in the quarter to 26 July 2026, up 106%. Data Center was $89.0B of it: $48.7B from the big cloud companies and $40.3B from AI clouds, industry, enterprises and governments.
Gross margin was 75.0%. Operating income was $63.7B, two thirds of revenue.
Supply and capacity commitments jumped from $119B to $279B in one quarter, mostly for memory. All commitments total $366B.
NVIDIA guarantees up to $108.5B of partners' data-centre obligations, $105B of it for SB Energy's sites, and signs leases it plans to pass to others.
Receivables reached $63.1B (60 days of sales, up from 45) after longer payment terms on big multi-quarter deals.
It issued $25B of bonds and returned almost $26B to shareholders in the quarter. Vera Rubin, the next chip family, starts shipping in the third quarter.
Key risks Fact
A few very large customers buy most Data Center products; if they cut spending, revenue falls fast.
Export rules: data-centre chips to China are effectively shut off, and rules can tighten further.
Customers design their own chips (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium) and rivals such as AMD compete hard.
Supply depends on TSMC in Taiwan and on scarce memory; NVIDIA has committed $279B to secure it.
Guarantees, leases and longer payment terms tie NVIDIA to its customers' finances.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Data Center (AI chips, systems, networking)$278B last 12 months (to 26 jul 2026), $356B on the latest basis
Hyperscale clouds $48.7B and AI clouds, industry and enterprise $40.3B in Q2 FY27. Almost no China data-centre sales.
Edge Computing (gaming, workstations, cars, robots)$25B last 12 months (to 26 jul 2026), $29B on the latest basis
GeForce gaming cards, RTX workstations, car computers and robotics chips. Up 27% in Q2 FY27.
Bet: Robots and physical AI
Jetson Thor robot computers, Isaac and GR00T robot models. Small today.
Bet: AI cloud revenue share
NVIDIA now takes a share of what partner AI clouds earn from their own customers (CFO commentary, Aug 2026).
Last 12 months (to 26 Jul 2026): Q3 FY26 to Q2 FY27 from the CFO commentaries; NVIDIA's year ends in late January. Latest quarter x 4 (Q2 FY27): Quarter to 26 Jul 2026 x 4. NVIDIA guides $108B for the next quarter. Cash and marketable debt securities $56.6B, less $33.4B of senior notes (26 Jul 2026). 24.1 billion shares outstanding on 21 Aug 2026 (10-Q cover).
Questions people ask Fact
Is NVIDIA stock overvalued?
At $213.66 a share NVIDIA is worth about $5.15T, around 27 times its last 12 months of profit. Whether that is too much depends on how long AI data-centre spending keeps growing; the lab shows what has to happen.
What could NVIDIA stock be worth in 2030?
Nobody knows. The lab projects revenue to 2036 by business line under your assumptions and shows the yearly return you would earn at today's price.
How does NVIDIA make money?
Mostly from Data Center: AI chips, networking and full systems sold to cloud companies, AI labs, businesses and governments ($89.0B of $96.2B in the quarter to July 2026). The rest is gaming, workstation, car and robot chips.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer