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Stonkometer: Amazon valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$2.64T$243.79 a share on 2026-10-29
Revenue, last 12 months$797.5BQ3 2026: $201.9B, up 12%
Operating income, Q3 2026$28.1B13.9%, a record margin
AWS, Q3 2026$46.0Bup 39%; operating income $17.8B
Capital spending, 2026about $220Bfree cash flow -$42.4B, last 12 months
Net debt$59B30 Sep 2026, before leases
Value over time
Total market value
$1T$2T$3T$4T
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$2.64T +1% since Oct 2025
$1T$2T$3T$4T
202420252026
$2.64T +92% since Oct 2023
$1T$2T$3T$4T
20222023202420252026
$2.64T +54% since Oct 2021
$1T$2T$3T$4T
200920122015201820212024
$2.64T 78x since 2008
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If Amazon is worth $2.64T today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$1.79T2.3x today's $797B, growing 8% a year
Net profit in 2036$273B2.5x what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203619%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue3.3xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case-2 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 26x earnings in 2036, a 9.5% required return and 0.5% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 8 quick questions.
The market price needs about 2 points less growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-29).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 4.5%; required return 9.5% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 0.5% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (North America 6.5%, International 3.5%, AWS 36%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 8 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Amazon. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Healthcare and pharmacy
Prescriptions, primary care (One Medical) and health services ordered as easily as a parcel.
Fact Amazon Pharmacy offers 3-hour delivery in more than 350 cities; customers rose over 60% in a year.
What would have to be true:
Insurers and regulators cooperate
People trust Amazon with health data
If it happens: Amazon earns $30B a year from 2031, worth $47B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 30% chance and discounted to today: $8.8B.
Zoox robotaxis at scale
Driverless Zoox vehicles carrying passengers and parcels in many cities.
Fact Zoox began paid rides in Las Vegas and operates in 12 US cities.
What would have to be true:
Regulators allow driverless fleets widely
Costs per mile below human drivers
If it happens: Amazon earns $30B a year from 2033, worth $119B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 15% chance and discounted to today: $9.1B.
AI shopping agents
An AI that shops for you across the web, with Amazon taking a fee or ad revenue on each purchase.
Fact Alexa for Shopping was used by more than 400 million customers in the last 12 months.
What would have to be true:
People let AI buy for them
Other shops let Amazon's agent in
If it happens: Amazon earns $45B a year from 2030, worth $213B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 30% chance and discounted to today: $44B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Healthcare and pharmacy 10%, Zoox robotaxis at scale 25%, AI shopping agents 30%.
Online shop, ads and Prime in North America and abroad, plus AWS, the largest cloud computing business. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Amazon at $3.04T against a market value of $2.64T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Andy Jassy, Amazon CEO (Oct 2026)
“AWS revenue growth of more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028.”
From $161.4B over the last 12 months.
Amazon guidance (Oct 2026)
“About $220 billion of cash capital spending in 2026.”
That is more than AWS's entire revenue, and more than twice Amazon's capital spending in 2024.
Amazon 10-Q (Jun 2026)
“$496 billion of AWS contracts signed but not yet delivered.”
About three years of AWS revenue at today's pace, much of it from AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact One class of common stock: one vote per share.
Economic interest
78.1%
Jeff Bezos 8.8%
Vanguard 7.2%
BlackRock 5.9%
Other shareholders 78.1%
Shareholder votes
78.1%
Jeff Bezos 8.8%
Vanguard 7.2%
BlackRock 5.9%
Other shareholders 78.1%
Who picks the board
all
All shareholders, one share one vote all
Founder Jeff Bezos is executive chair; Andy Jassy has been CEO since July 2021.
Bezos has sold shares most years, so his stake keeps shrinking; he still has the largest single block of votes.
What Amazon owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$114B30 Sep 2026
Debt$173Bincluding finance leases
Net debt$58.9Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$650Ball contractual commitments at 30 Jun 2026, including debt, leases and $130B of purchase obligations (energy, content, equipment)
Commitments / revenue0.8xrevenue, last 12 months: $798B
Long-term debt jumped from $65.6B at the start of 2026 to $173.1B, to pay for AI data centres.
Lease liabilities of $98.8B are not counted in the debt figure above.
Free cash flow was -$42.4B over the last 12 months, as capital spending heads for about $220B in 2026.
Sales were $201.9B in Q3 2026, up 12%. Operating income was a record $28.1B: North America $8.7B, International $1.6B and AWS $17.8B.
AWS grew 39% to $46.0B, a $184B annual run-rate. Andy Jassy expects AWS to grow more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028.
Amazon expects about $220B of capital spending in 2026, mostly for AI. Free cash flow over the last 12 months was -$42.4B; long-term debt rose from $65.6B to $173.1B this year.
Advertising brought in $78.0B over the last 12 months; it sits inside the North America and International segments.
Amazon holds a large stake in Anthropic and booked $62.8B of gains on it in the first half of 2026. AWS has deals with OpenAI and Anthropic worth more than $100B each.
Q4 2026 guidance: sales of $240-247B and operating income of $28.5-33.5B.
Key risks Fact
AI spending of about $220B a year must earn a return; free cash flow is negative for now.
Competition in cloud from Microsoft and Google, and in shopping from Walmart, Temu and Shein.
Antitrust cases in the US and Europe over how Amazon treats sellers.
Thin retail margins: wages, shipping costs and tariffs eat into them quickly.
Large AI customers such as OpenAI and Anthropic could buy compute elsewhere.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
North America (shop, ads, Prime)$460B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $451B on the latest basis
Online and physical stores, third-party seller fees, advertising and Prime in the US, Canada and Mexico. 7.7% operating margin in Q3 2026.
International (shop, ads, Prime)$176B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $172B on the latest basis
The same businesses in other countries. 3.7% operating margin in Q3 2026.
AWS (cloud)$161B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $184B on the latest basis
Up 39% in Q3 2026, the fastest in nearly five years; 38.7% operating margin. $496B of signed future revenue at 30 Jun 2026.
Bet: Amazon Leo satellite internet
Low Earth orbit internet, service due to start in late 2026; AT&T signed as the first big US carrier.
Bet: Zoox robotaxis
Paid rides in Las Vegas since 2026; testing in 12 US cities.
Last 12 months (to 30 Sep 2026): Trailing twelve months by segment from the Q3 2026 earnings release. Latest quarter x 4 (Q3 2026): Q3 2026 segment sales x 4. Q4 is the holiday quarter, so retail runs higher then. Cash and marketable securities $114.2B, less $173.1B of long-term debt (30 Sep 2026); $98.8B of lease liabilities not included. 10,811M shares outstanding on 30 Sep 2026 (Q3 2026 earnings release).
Questions people ask Fact
Is Amazon stock overvalued?
At $243.79 a share Amazon is worth about $2.64T. Its last 12 months of profit include large one-off gains on its Anthropic stake, so the lab works from operating profit by business line instead.
What could Amazon stock be worth in 2030?
Nobody knows. The lab projects AWS, North America and International revenue to 2036 under your assumptions and shows the yearly return at today's price.
How does Amazon make money?
AWS earns most of the profit ($17.8B of $28.1B in Q3 2026). The shops in North America and abroad bring most of the revenue, with ads and Prime inside them.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer