Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 9 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay OpenAI. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Replacing web search
ChatGPT taking a large part of the money now made from search ads.
Fact Google's search advertising brought in about $200 billion in 2024.
What would have to be true:
People moving from search to chat for most questions
Ads that work inside answers without losing trust
Google not keeping the lead
If it happens: OpenAI earns $75B a year from 2032, worth $415B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 25% chance and discounted to today: $46B.
AI shopping agent
ChatGPT buying things for you and earning a small cut of each sale.
Fact People buy several trillion dollars of goods online each year.
What would have to be true:
Shops and payment firms joining in
People trusting an AI to spend their money
A cut of about 2% that sellers accept
If it happens: OpenAI earns $36B a year from 2032, worth $171B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 25% chance and discounted to today: $19B.
A device that replaces the smartphone
An AI-first gadget built with Jony Ive's team.
Fact The world spends roughly $500 billion a year on smartphones.
What would have to be true:
A product people prefer over their phone
Hardware supply chains and retail at scale
Apple and Google not matching it first
If it happens: OpenAI earns $50B a year from 2033, worth $198B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 10% chance and discounted to today: $7.7B.
AI that cures diseases and slows ageing
Royalties or partnerships on drugs and treatments found with OpenAI models.
Fact The world spends about $1.6 trillion a year on medicines.
What would have to be true:
AI-found drugs passing clinical trials
Regulators accepting AI-led research
Deals that pay OpenAI, not only its customers
If it happens: OpenAI earns $20B a year from 2040, worth $126B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 8% chance and discounted to today: $1.6B.
Superintelligence
AI better than people at nearly all work, OpenAI's stated mission, sold as a service.
Fact OpenAI's charter aims at "artificial general intelligence"; nobody knows when or if it arrives.
What would have to be true:
A breakthrough beyond today's models
Enough chips and power to run it
Governments letting one company sell it
If it happens: OpenAI earns $400B a year from 2040, worth $1.90T then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 4% chance and discounted to today: $12B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Replacing web search 35%, AI shopping agent 30%, A device that replaces the smartphone 25%, AI that cures diseases and slows ageing 40%, Superintelligence 30%.
Maker of ChatGPT. Filed confidentially for an IPO; listing now expected in 2027. Below is a valuation lab built on the best public reporting (OpenAI has published no prospectus yet): pick a scenario, move the sliders, and the Stonkometer shows whether today's valuation looks like a bubble or a bargain by your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts OpenAI at $1.03T against a last round of $852B. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
OpenAI projections (reported 2025)
“About $200 billion of revenue by 2030, cash-flow positive by 2029-2030.”
From a ~$49B run-rate in late 2026.
Reported (Bloomberg, Oct 2026)
“Annualised revenue of $70B or more by the end of 2026.”
About 10 weeks after the ~$50B figure.
Reported funding talks (Oct 2026)
“A new round valuing OpenAI above $1.4 trillion.”
What profits would $1.4T need?
What the reports say Fact
OpenAI is private and has not published a prospectus. Everything here is from company statements and major press, not audited filings.
Reported revenue: $3.7B (2024), $13.1B (2025); run-rate "approaching $50B" in October 2026, about $20B below figures earlier shared with investors (FT).
Restructured in 2025: a for-profit public benefit corporation controlled by the OpenAI Foundation; Microsoft holds a large stake.
Reported compute commitments include Oracle ($300B over five years), Microsoft Azure ($250B), AMD (6 GW), Nvidia (8 GW site with a $105B backstop) and Broadcom chips.
Earlier projections: about $115B of cash burn through 2029 and around $200B of revenue by 2030 (reported 2025).
IPO filed confidentially in June 2026; Sam Altman said in September it slips to 2027.
Key risks Our view
Cash burn is enormous and depends on raising more money.
Competition from Anthropic, Google, xAI and open-source models presses prices down.
Revenue figures are self-reported and have been revised down once already.
Complex governance: a nonprofit foundation, Microsoft and other investors all have rights.
Lawsuits over training data, and safety and regulatory pressure.
Long compute contracts are fixed costs if demand slows.
OpenAI has published no risk factors yet, so this list is our own reading of public reporting.
The business lines in the model
ChatGPT and API (not broken out)$49B reported run-rate (about $50b, oct 2026), $67B on the latest basis
OpenAI publishes no split. 2025 revenue was $13.1B.
Advertising$1B reported run-rate (about $50b, oct 2026), $3B on the latest basis
Ads passed a $1B run-rate in Aug 2026, about 200 days after launch.
Bet: Devices and commerce
Hardware with Jony Ive's team and shopping inside ChatGPT. No numbers disclosed.
Reported run-rate (about $50B, Oct 2026): Financial Times, Oct 2026: "approaching $50 billion". Company target ($70B run-rate, end 2026): Bloomberg, Oct 2026: OpenAI still targets $70B+ annualised by year end. Not disclosed. A post-money valuation already includes the cash raised..
Questions people ask Fact
Can I buy OpenAI stock?
No. OpenAI is private. It filed confidentially for an IPO in June 2026, and Sam Altman said in September that the listing slips to 2027.
What is OpenAI worth?
Its $122 billion round in March/April 2026 valued it at $852 billion. Talks of a round above $1.4 trillion were reported in October 2026.
How much revenue does OpenAI make?
It reported $13.1 billion for 2025 and a run-rate approaching $50 billion in October 2026, with a target of $70 billion by the end of 2026.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer