Move the sliders, read the needle, share your call.
Stonkometer: Tesla valuation, my model
Fact Key numbers from SEC filings
Market value$1.56T$393.86 a share on 2026-10-26
Revenue, last 12 months$103.6BQ3 2026: $28.0B, flat on a year ago
Net income, last 12 months$3.2BQ3 2026: $0.79B, down 43%
Price / earnings (TTM)about 480xmarket value / last 12 months net income
Deliveries, Q3 2026486,5321.64M vehicles in 2025
Net cash$36B30 Sep 2026
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 12 quick questions.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-26).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 5%; required return 10% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 1% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (Automotive 3%, Energy storage and solar 22%, Services and other 5%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances. The Musk award case is our reading of public targets.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 12 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Tesla. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Tesla as an electricity company
Selling power to homes and running millions of batteries and cars as one virtual power plant.
Fact Tesla Electric already sells electricity to Powerwall owners in Texas.
What would have to be true:
Regulators open more power markets
Millions of Powerwalls and cars that share power
Utilities don't block it
If it happens: Tesla earns $15B a year from 2032, worth $36B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 30% chance and discounted to today: $5.7B.
Licensing self-driving to other carmakers
Other brands pay Tesla to use FSD software in their cars.
Fact Musk has said Tesla is open to licensing FSD; no deal has been announced.
What would have to be true:
FSD clearly safer than people and rivals
Carmakers willing to depend on a competitor
Regulators approving it car by car
If it happens: Tesla earns $40B a year from 2032, worth $442B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $47B.
Robots caring for older people
Optimus robots helping at home and in care homes as populations age.
Fact Japan, Korea, China and Europe face shortages of care workers as their populations age.
What would have to be true:
Robots safe enough to touch and lift people
A price families or governments can pay
People trusting robots with their parents
If it happens: Tesla earns $75B a year from 2038, worth $296B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 10% chance and discounted to today: $8.4B.
Robot soldiers and defence robots
Humanoid and other robots for logistics, demining and combat support.
Fact World military spending was about $2.7 trillion in 2024 (SIPRI).
What would have to be true:
Armies buying humanoid robots at scale
Tesla willing to sell to militaries
International rules on autonomous weapons that allow it
If it happens: Tesla earns $14B a year from 2035, worth $53B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 8% chance and discounted to today: $1.7B.
Flying cars
Electric vertical take-off vehicles for city trips.
Fact Several companies are testing electric air taxis; Tesla has no flying-car programme.
What would have to be true:
Batteries with much more energy per kilogram
Air-traffic rules for thousands of small aircraft
Tesla choosing to enter the market
If it happens: Tesla earns $10B a year from 2040, worth $32B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 4% chance and discounted to today: $0.3B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Tesla as an electricity company 15%, Licensing self-driving to other carmakers 70%, Robots caring for older people 25%, Robot soldiers and defence robots 25%, Flying cars 20%.
Cars, batteries and charging today; robotaxis and Optimus robots are the bet. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings: pick a scenario, move the sliders, and the Stonkometer shows whether today's price looks like a bubble or a bargain by your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Tesla at $663B against a market value of $1.56T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Musk's projections, fact-checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Elon Musk, Tesla Autonomy Day (Apr 2019)
“"Over a million robotaxis" on the road by 2020.”
Tesla launched a small robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025 and began Cybercab rides in Q3 2026. The 1 million robotaxis goal is now a 2025 CEO award milestone.
2025 CEO Performance Award (approved Nov 2025)
“$400 billion of Adjusted EBITDA in a year, 20M vehicles, 10M FSD subscriptions, 1M bots, 1M robotaxis, $8.5T market value.”
Tesla's Adjusted EBITDA is roughly $15B a year today.
Elon Musk on X (Sep 2025)
“About 80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus.”
At an $8.5T value, what does 80% from robots imply?
What the filings say Fact
Two reportable segments: Automotive (including services) and Energy generation and storage. Robotaxi and Optimus sit inside the company with no separate numbers yet.
Revenue was $94.8B in 2025 after $97.7B in 2024; Q3 2026 revenue was $28.0B vs $28.1B a year earlier.
Regulatory credit revenue was $2.0B in 2025 and $0.1B in Q3 2026 (down 73% on a year earlier).
Operating income fell 56% in Q3 2026 as AI and Optimus spending climbed.
Energy deployed 13.7 GWh in Q3 2026 at a 33% gross margin, while its revenue fell 16%.
Shareholders approved the 2025 CEO Performance Award: up to 423.7M shares for Musk tied to market value ($2T to $8.5T) and 12 operational milestones.
A special committee is evaluating a possible combination with SpaceX (Oct 2026).
Key risks Fact
Future value depends on autonomy and robots that do not yet earn meaningful revenue.
Car demand, price cuts and competition from Chinese makers pressure margins.
Regulators decide where and when driverless cars may operate.
Heavy dependence on Elon Musk, whose time is split across several companies.
The CEO award may steer the company toward specific bets (robots, robotaxis) that customers may not want (10-K risk factor).
Tariffs and trade disputes hit both cars and energy products.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Automotive$75B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $82B on the latest basis
Car sales, regulatory credits ($0.1B in Q3, down 73%) and leasing. 486,532 deliveries in Q3 2026.
Energy storage and solar$12B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $12B on the latest basis
Megapack and Powerwall. Q3 2026 revenue fell 16% (tariff refunds) though deployments rose to 13.7 GWh; 33% gross margin.
Services and other$16B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $18B on the latest basis
Charging, insurance, parts, used cars. Up 33% in Q3 2026.
Bet: Robotaxi (Cybercab)
Service launched in Austin in June 2025; Cybercab rides began in Q3 2026.
Bet: Optimus robots
Humanoid robot, not yet sold commercially. Musk's award needs 1 million delivered.
Bet: FSD software subscriptions
Award target: 10 million active FSD subscriptions.
Last 12 months (to 30 Sep 2026): FY2025 + 9M 2026 - 9M 2025, from the 10-K and 10-Q. Latest quarter x 4 (Q3 2026): Q3 2026 revenue x 4. Cash $17.9B + short-term investments $27.6B, less debt and finance leases $9.5B (30 Sep 2026). 3,952.8M shares outstanding on 15 Oct 2026 (10-Q cover).
Questions people ask Fact
Is Tesla stock overvalued?
At $393.86 a share Tesla is worth about $1.56T, around 480 times its last 12 months of profit. Whether that is too much depends on robotaxis and Optimus; the lab shows what they must deliver.
What could Tesla stock be worth in 2030?
Nobody knows. The lab projects revenue to 2036 by business line under your assumptions, and shows the yearly return you would earn at today's price.
What are Musk's pay targets?
The 2025 CEO award needs a market value of up to $8.5 trillion and goals such as 1 million robotaxis, 1 million robots and $400 billion of adjusted EBITDA.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer