Revenue, last 12 months$1.36BQ2 2026: $582M, up 454%
Contracts not yet delivered (RPO)$37.5B30 Jun 2026
Adjusted EBITDA, Q2 2026$236Mnet loss $190M
Capital spending, H1 2026$8.1B6x revenue
Net debt$0.5B30 Jun 2026
Value over time
Total market value
$20B$40B$60B$80B$100B
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26
$45B +37% since Oct 2025
$20B$40B$60B$80B$100B
20252026
$45B 8.9x since 2024
Total value, not price per share: share counts change with fundraising, stock pay and splits.
What today's market value implies
If Nebius is worth $45B today, our model says this has to happen by 2036:
Revenue in 2036$66B28x today's $2.3B, growing 40% a year
Net profit in 2036$11B10% of what Apple earned in 2025 (about $110B)
Operating margin in 203620%our middle-case margins for each business line
Value today / revenue19xthe S&P 500 average is about 3x
Growth vs our middle case+7 ptsa year, on every business line
Assumption Solved from our model: middle-case margins, 18x earnings in 2036, a 12.0% required return and 3% new shares a year. The lab below opens on this "market's view"; change any number there.
Assumption Starting cases are Stonkometer values, not forecasts. The needle reads your inputs. Not sure what to assume? Answer 5 quick questions.
The market price needs about +7 points more growth a year than our middle case, on every business line.
Revenue by business line
Scenarios vs today
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Defaults and conventions
Fact Revenue, cash, debt and share counts come from the filings or reports listed under Sources (data as of 2026-10-30).
Fact Currency: nominal US dollars. All four companies report in US$, so there is no FX conversion.
Assumption Inflation is not a separate input: growth rates and the risk-free rate are nominal, so they already include it.
Assumption Risk-free rate 5% (the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.99% on 26 Oct 2026); risk premium 7%; required return 12% a year.
Assumption Tax 21% on profits (US federal rate); dilution 3% a year; 10-year horizon; magic revenue earns 30%.
Assumption Today's operating margins per business line (Nebius AI cloud -30%) are Stonkometer estimates from the latest filings.
Assumption Bear, middle and bull values and bet sizes, margins and chances.
Change any of them in Advanced mode. Full list on the method page.
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Build your assumptions: 5 questions
Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 5 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay Nebius. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Selling AI answers, not GPUs
Token Factory sells model answers by usage to companies that do not want to manage GPUs.
Fact Nebius bought Eigen AI, Clarifai's core team and Inferize to build its inference stack.
What would have to be true:
Open models stay competitive
Better margins than renting raw GPUs
If it happens: Nebius earns $12B a year from 2031, worth $57B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 20% chance and discounted to today: $5.6B.
Europe's sovereign AI cloud
Governments and regulated companies in Europe and elsewhere keep AI on local, non-US infrastructure.
Fact Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner in September 2026.
What would have to be true:
Data rules favour local providers
Enough power in Europe
If it happens: Nebius earns $9.6B a year from 2030, worth $46B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 25% chance and discounted to today: $6.4B.
Avride robotaxis at scale
Avride's self-driving cars run on Uber and other networks in many cities.
Fact Avride runs robotaxis with Uber in Dallas.
What would have to be true:
Self-driving proves safe
Partners keep ordering cars
If it happens: Nebius earns $9.0B a year from 2032, worth $28B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 10% chance and discounted to today: $1.2B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Selling AI answers, not GPUs 30%, Europe's sovereign AI cloud 30%, Avride robotaxis at scale 20%.
Amsterdam-based AI cloud built from the old Yandex international business, renting GPUs to Microsoft, Meta and AI start-ups; also owns Avride robotaxis. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings. It opens on what today's price implies; pick another scenario or move the sliders, and the Stonkometer compares today's price with your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts Nebius at $31B against a market value of $45B. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Big claims, checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
Nebius Q2 2026 results (Aug 2026)
“Revenue up 454% to $582 million in the quarter.”
From $105M in Q2 2025.
Nebius 6-K (Oct 2026)
“More than $40 billion of long-term contracts with investment-grade customers.”
About 17 years of revenue at the latest quarter's pace; the filed RPO at 30 June was $37.5B.
Nebius Q2 2026 interim report (Aug 2026)
“$37.5 billion of remaining performance obligations, 36% due within 24 months.”
That is about $6.7B a year over the next two years, nearly three times today's run-rate.
Who owns it, who controls it
Fact Class A: one vote per share, listed on Nasdaq. Class B: ten votes per share, held mostly by founder Arkady Volozh's family trust.
Economic interest
88.7%
Arkady Volozh (family trust) 11.3%
Other shareholders 88.7%
Shareholder votes
51.6%48.4%
Arkady Volozh (family trust) 51.6%
Other shareholders 48.4%
Who picks the board
all
Elected by all votes, where Volozh has about 52% all
Insiders and other pre-IPO holders together held about 59% of the votes.
Nebius is a Dutch company (N.V.) listed only on Nasdaq; it files 20-F and 6-K reports instead of 10-K and 10-Q.
Shares sold since March 2026 lower these percentages a little.
What Nebius owes, what it holds, and the spending it has already signed up for. Contracts for compute and infrastructure are not debt on the balance sheet, but they must be paid like it.
Cash and investments$8.0B30 Jun 2026
Debt$8.5Bincluding finance leases
Net debt$0.5Bcash minus debt
Spending commitments$12.1Bdata-centre and equipment leases signed but not yet started, starting in 2026 and 2027 for up to 12 years
Commitments / revenue5.3xrevenue run-rate (Q2 2026 x 4): $2.3B
Most of the debt is convertible notes, which turn into shares if the price is high enough.
Customers had prepaid about $6.0B for future service (deferred revenue) at 30 June, which funds part of the build-out.
In October 2026 Nebius added a $3.5B, 364-day secured loan from Citi at SOFR plus 2.75% to 3.50%.
It also holds stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka, carried at $1.6B.
Revenue was $582.3M in the quarter to 30 June 2026, up 454%. Adjusted EBITDA was $236.2M; the net loss from continuing operations was $190.4M.
Contracts signed but not yet delivered (RPO) were $37.5B; about 36% should become revenue within 24 months.
Three customers each brought 10% or more of revenue in the quarter: 24%, 21% and 14%.
It spent $8.1B on property and equipment in the first half of 2026. Data-centre leases signed but not yet started add $12.1B.
In H1 2026 it raised $4.3B of convertible notes, sold $2.8B of treasury shares and $2.0B of pre-funded warrants. In October it took a $3.5B, 364-day secured loan from Citi and said it holds more than $40B of long-term contracts with investment-grade customers.
Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh owns about 11% of the shares and 52% of the votes through ten-vote Class B shares.
Key risks Fact
Spending runs far ahead of revenue: $8.1B of capital spending in six months against $1.0B of revenue.
Three customers bring about 60% of revenue.
More shares and convertible notes are likely to fund the build-out, diluting today's owners.
GPUs age fast, and the price of renting them could fall as supply catches up.
Arkady Volozh controls the vote, and the company's Yandex roots still draw questions from some investors.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Nebius AI cloud (plus Avride and TripleTen)$1.4B last 12 months (to 30 jun 2026), $2.3B on the latest basis
$582M in Q2 2026, up 454%. Nebius does not split out Avride (self-driving) or TripleTen (online courses); the AI cloud is most of it. The operating margin was -30% with depreciation at 45% of revenue. Margin in 2036 is our estimate.
Bet: Avride robotaxis and delivery robots
Self-driving cars with Uber in Dallas and sidewalk delivery robots in the US, Japan and Korea.
Bet: Token Factory (AI inference as a service)
Selling AI model answers by the token rather than renting raw GPUs; grown through the Eigen AI, Clarifai and Inferize deals.
Last 12 months (to 30 Jun 2026): H2 2025 from the 2025 20-F plus H1 2026 from the Q2 2026 results. Latest quarter x 4 (Q2 2026): Quarter to 30 Jun 2026 x 4. Includes small Avride and TripleTen revenue. Cash $8.04B, less $8.55B of debt, mostly convertible notes (30 Jun 2026); $1.6B of stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka not included. 271.9M shares (238.4M Class A + 33.5M Class B) on 30 Jun 2026, plus 21.1M shares under pre-funded warrants.
Questions people ask Fact
Is Nebius stock overvalued?
At $154.14 a share Nebius is worth about $45B. Revenue grew 454% in Q2 2026 but it still loses money, so the lab asks what the AI cloud will earn once it matures.
Is Nebius the old Yandex?
It is the former parent, Yandex N.V. It sold all its Russian businesses in 2024, renamed itself Nebius and kept the international AI cloud, Avride, TripleTen and stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka.
Who are Nebius's customers?
Microsoft signed a five-year contract worth up to $19.4B in September 2025 and Meta a $3B one in November 2025. In Q2 2026 three customers each brought 10% or more of revenue: 24%, 21% and 14%.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer